Midterm surprises leave Congress (apparently) divided

As we write this, many days after the midterm election, one thing is clear: This was a historic election in that the party in power performed far better than anyone predicted—indeed, better than any such party has performed in decades. As a result, the Democrats will retain control of the Senate, with Republicans at this point winning the House by a narrow margin.

Early conclusions

Abortion really mattered in states where it was at risk, affecting Senate, House, and gubernatorial races (e.g., Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia). Further, proabortion referenda/amendments won in unexpected states (Kentucky, Montana, and Vermont). Where abortion rights were not threatened (California and New York), other, more traditional midterm patterns were followed, which was reflected in Republican success in New York (the party won 6 of 7 contested seats) and unpredicted strength in California, which may decide the House.

“Quality” candidates mattered in races across the board (Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) and may keep Georgia in the Democratic Senate camp. Further, the most aggressive election deniers, the four “America First” secretaries of state, all lost, preserving election integrity. Over 140 Republican incumbent election deniers, however, were reelected to the House. Mitch McConnell again proved he is the most astute vote counter in Congress—or anywhere.